We finally have three Britain-wide voting intention polls this weekend that were wholly conducted after the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader. I can't find any Scottish information from the Opinium poll yet (thus robbing me of my "auspicious Opinium offering" headline), but the news from ComRes is extremely reassuring - the SNP are unchanged on 5% of the vote. The Scottish subsample has figures of SNP 49%, Conservatives 23%, Labour 17%, UKIP 5%, Liberal Democrats 4%, Greens 2%. YouGov have the combined SNP/Plaid vote at 5% across Britain, and the Scottish sample shows SNP 44%, Labour 28%, Conservatives 21%, Liberal Democrats 3%, UKIP 2%, Greens 2%. An ICM poll from a few days ago that was partly conducted post-Corbyn showed much the same thing.
OK, the Scottish sample sizes are extremely small, but so far the limited evidence is suggesting Labour's change of leader has made little or no immediate difference. And I must say I take voting intention numbers more seriously than these endless "does Corbyn make you more or less likely to vote Labour?" polls. Even people who answer "more likely" to that question may simply mean that the chances of them voting Labour has increased from 0% to 5%.
Opinium Observer shows much the same thing. No sign of any movement to labour. In fact the overall picture is of the right (UKIP + Con = 53% in my PoP) rising if anything.
ReplyDeleteOpinium Scottish subsample:
52% SNP
22% Lab
16% Con
4% UKIP
3% Green
3% Lib
By September 2010, Labour were already chasing the Tories, being just a couple of points behind. By December 2010, they'd taken a clear lead; a lead they retained all the way through to early 2015.
ReplyDeleteThey then went on to lose and the Tories got a majority.
Right now, they're 7-8 points behind in contrast.
SNP plunge from 62% to 44%
ReplyDeleteDear God - what's happening!
Are you 'no' yet? :0)
Aldo
On what planet have they "plunged from 62% to 44%"? Keep taking the tablets, Aldo.
Delete