Thursday, June 29, 2017

And this is why Indyref 2 is not going away...

As you may have seen, the House of Commons has just voted on an amendment to the Queen's Speech, tabled by Labour MP Chuka Umunna, calling on the UK to remain within both the EU single market and the customs union.  The Corbyn leadership whipped Labour MPs to abstain (yet again), leading to confident predictions among the London commentariat that there would be a huge rebellion against Corbyn.  Well, I don't know how we're supposed to define 'huge', but given that 75%+ of the PLP are known to be Corbyn-sceptic, and given that the vast majority of the PLP are also pro-European, I have to say I'm somewhat underwhelmed by just 49 of the 262 Labour MPs voting in favour of the amendment, which was defeated by more than 200 votes.  No Tory MPs at all voted in favour, meaning that less than 16% of Commons members (even after the Speaker, Deputy Speakers and tellers are excluded) backed single market membership.

We've been constantly told since election night that there is no majority in the Commons for leaving the single market, but I'm not sure what use it is having a 'silent majority' on your side if those people are not prepared to vote for what they believe in.  Unless something dramatic changes, we are still heading for a very hard Brexit, meaning in turn that the prospect of Indyref 2 is simply not going to go away.

21 comments:

  1. I think Corbyn sees himself as acting out of principal on the hardness of Brexit - he's trying to give the people what they want: out of the EU with no freedom of movement. He'll do it regardless of what's best for the country. But let's face it, he was only ever luke warm to the EU anyway so it's not something he'll lose much sleep over. The people voted for Brexit and the mood is for no freedom of movement, so Brexit will be as hard as it needs to be to achieve it. Scotland isn't a primary concern here. The bulk of the UK voted for Brexit so Scotland needs to just grow up and deal with it - that's how he sees it. We have no allies on this. Scotland either becomes independent and runs itself, or Scotland can pull up a chair and chunter.

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    1. I don't get this 'what the people want' thing. The UK didn't vote for a hard Brexit, just Brexit, not having a clue what that really meant in reality. Many in the leave campaign assured us we wouldn't be taken out of the single market by a leave vote. Why are so many MPs scrambling to yank us out in the most damaging way possibe?

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    2. @Ros - That's a good point. There was only a 52% vote for leaving the EU, so definitely not a majority for a 'hard brexit' in reality. Of course, immigration was likely the leading factor, but there would still be a significant number who want to remain in the single market via a Norway style arrangement, or who believed the UK would get some special new 'cherry picked' deal. Or who simply believed Boris's bullsh*t about extra NHS funding etc

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    3. I'm not sure I get it either. It's something that's morphed itself into existence. It's maybe to do with MPs not wanting to go against the will of the people in the first instance, but then being unable to reconcile Brexit with the single market and freedom of movement (because the EU have said a big fat no) so they now have to go down the hard route because they effectively have to, so they're now conflating Brexit with hard Brexit. They're in a corner so they're retrospectively defining "what the people wanted". It seems to have worked, more or less, especially with the brexiteers. Apparently that's what they wanted all along. It's the remainers that are saying wtf.

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  2. NI is still the complication for the closed borders Brexiteers.
    The EU will rightly say that they cannot have freedom of movement between one part of the EU but not the rest.

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  3. I cannot see how the NI situation can be solved without FoM and an open border. The UK either keeps FoM, NI is given some special status or the whole place goes up in flames. If NI is given special status it means a hard border elsewhere! And if NI gets special status, why not Scotland too? Move the hard border to the border with England... sorted.

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    1. If the hard border is between NI/Eire or NI/ rUK or Englandshire/ Civilization the big problem with it wrt the areas affected is still there. Delays in shipping perishable goods to European markets. And all 3 of the civilized bits of the EU on these islands do a lot of trade in agricultural produce.

      Independent Scotland is going to need East coast regular ferry routes with RET charges or the roadblock between us and the south coast ports is still there even if we remain in the EU.

      If there is a soft border between the North and South of Ireland, I would doubt any power on the planet will be able to police it for smuggling.

      Now, what about Gibraltar? When is that Spanish flag going up?

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    2. Talking common sense will get you placed in the Looney bin these days. People should also remember that the " real left" in the Olden days saw globalism as a tactic-threat to the ability of people to effect change. So this is where a hard lefter becomes a neocon .

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    3. There never was a real left just a bunch of opportunists like the Jock nat sis.

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    4. Agree Anon.. I'm all for a really decent container port on the East side of the country

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  4. Workers of the world abstain!

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    1. From voting for narrow back Nat sis... Who think they are a special species.

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  5. Poor Jock fascist losers I feel your despair. Aye.

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    1. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

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  6. 52% overall for Brexit back when, and since then the other 48% are told they're traitors. Aye right. PS GWC2 and all your acronyms: FOAD. Love :-)

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  7. I think he's playing the public,:
    Im sticking with what you voted for,
    and as the abyss approaches they'll look over the edge and they'll start screaming "we didnt vote for this",
    but of course they did,
    then he'll do a quicker volte face than you can say Theresa May!

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  8. Corbyn has always been against the single market etc, he is a politician and at the last election he made out and his Blairite MP's didn't correct anyone (as they might not have been elected in their areas) that Labour wanted a soft brexit etc. This was just a lie and designed at winning some lib dem votes, which seemed to have worked.

    Labours infighting got put on hold during the election. There is still Blairites that want Corbyn out, they want to pressurise him as well as the Tories who want a softer brexit into going against their leaders that was what this vote last night was about.

    A hard brexit is coming, Corbyn thinks he can change the UK being out of the EU, he doesn't seem to realise that the UK course of trying to be a tax-haven with a hard brexit is what has been decided.

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  9. I never checked what percentage of voters,those that voted and those that didn't actually voted to leave the EU,did they get 40% of the electorate? Was there a big number of voters who were certain of remaining that just never bothered to vote,and now as my old Nana would say "they got a shit eye" we were carried out by less than 50% of the electorate why has this not been used more often? what sneaky stuff is going on in real power places?

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  10. We said Yes and we meant it!

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